Copyright The New York Times
Published: January 27, 2008
Turn on the TV today, and you could be forgiven for thinking itâ€šÃ„Ã´s 1999. Democrats and Republicans are bickering about where and how to intervene, whether to do it alone or with allies and what kind of world America should lead. Democrats believe they can hit a reset button, and Republicans believe muscular moralism is the way to go. Itâ€šÃ„Ã´s as if the first decade of the 21st century didnâ€šÃ„Ã´t happen â€šÃ„Ã® and almost as if history itself doesnâ€šÃ„Ã´t happen. But the distribution of power in the world has fundamentally altered over the two presidential terms of George W. Bush, both because of his policies and, more significant, despite them. Maybe the best way to understand how quickly history happens is to look just a bit ahead.
It is 2016, and the Hillary Clinton or John McCain or Barack Obama administration is nearing the end of its second term. America has pulled out of Iraq but has about 20,000 troops in the independent state of Kurdistan, as well as warships anchored at Bahrain and an Air Force presence in Qatar. Afghanistan is stable; Iran is nuclear. China has absorbed Taiwan and is steadily increasing its naval presence around the Pacific Rim and, from the Pakistani port of Gwadar, on the Arabian Sea. The European Union has expanded to well over 30 members and has secure oil and gas flows from North Africa, Russia and the Caspian Sea, as well as substantial nuclear energy. Americaâ€šÃ„Ã´s standing in the world remains in steady decline.
Why? Werenâ€šÃ„Ã´t we supposed to reconnect with the United Nations and reaffirm to the world that America can, and should, lead it to collective security and prosperity? Indeed, improvements to Americaâ€šÃ„Ã´s image may or may not occur, but either way, they mean little. Condoleezza Rice has said America has no â€šÃ„Ãºpermanent enemies,â€šÃ„Ã¹ but it has no permanent friends either. Many saw the invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq as the symbols of a global American imperialism; in fact, they were signs of imperial overstretch. Every expenditure has weakened Americaâ€šÃ„Ã´s armed forces, and each assertion of power has awakened resistance in the form of terrorist networks, insurgent groups and â€šÃ„Ãºasymmetricâ€šÃ„Ã¹ weapons like suicide bombers. Americaâ€šÃ„Ã´s unipolar moment has inspired diplomatic and financial countermovements to block American bullying and construct an alternate world order. That new global order has arrived, and there is precious little Clinton or McCain or Obama could do to resist its growth.
The Geopolitical Marketplace
At best, Americaâ€šÃ„Ã´s unipolar moment lasted through the 1990s, but that was also a decade adrift. The post-cold-war â€šÃ„Ãºpeace dividendâ€šÃ„Ã¹ was never converted into a global liberal order under American leadership. So now, rather than bestriding the globe, we are competing â€šÃ„Ã® and losing â€šÃ„Ã® in a geopolitical marketplace alongside the worldâ€šÃ„Ã´s other superpowers: the European Union and China. This is geopolitics in the 21st century: the new Big Three. Not Russia, an increasingly depopulated expanse run by Gazprom.gov; not an incoherent Islam embroiled in internal wars; and not India, lagging decades behind China in both development and strategic appetite. The Big Three make the rules â€šÃ„Ã® their own rules â€šÃ„Ã® without any one of them dominating. And the others are left to choose their suitors in this post-American world.
The more we appreciate the differences among the American, European and Chinese worldviews, the more we will see the planetary stakes of the new global game. Previous eras of balance of power have been among European powers sharing a common culture. The cold war, too, was not truly an â€šÃ„ÃºEast-Westâ€šÃ„Ã¹ struggle; it remained essentially a contest over Europe. What we have today, for the first time in history, is a global, multicivilizational, multipolar battle.
In Europeâ€šÃ„Ã´s capital, Brussels, technocrats, strategists and legislators increasingly see their role as being the global balancer between America and China. Jorgo Chatzimarkakis, a German member of the European Parliament, calls it â€šÃ„ÃºEuropean patriotism.â€šÃ„Ã¹ The Europeans play both sides, and if they do it well, they profit handsomely. Itâ€šÃ„Ã´s a trend that will outlast both President Nicolas Sarkozy of France, the self-described â€šÃ„Ãºfriend of America,â€šÃ„Ã¹ and Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany, regardless of her visiting the Crawford ranch. It may comfort American conservatives to point out that Europe still lacks a common army; the only problem is that it doesnâ€šÃ„Ã´t really need one. Europeans use intelligence and the police to apprehend radical Islamists, social policy to try to integrate restive Muslim populations and economic strength to incorporate the former Soviet Union and gradually subdue Russia. Each year European investment in Turkey grows as well, binding it closer to the E.U. even if it never becomes a member. And each year a new pipeline route opens transporting oil and gas from Libya, Algeria or Azerbaijan to Europe. What other superpower grows by an average of one country per year, with others waiting in line and begging to join?
Robert Kagan famously said that America hails from Mars and Europe from Venus, but in reality, Europe is more like Mercury â€šÃ„Ã® carrying a big wallet. The E.U.â€šÃ„Ã´s market is the worldâ€šÃ„Ã´s largest, European technologies more and more set the global standard and European countries give the most development assistance. And if America and China fight, the worldâ€šÃ„Ã´s money will be safely invested in European banks. Many Americans scoffed at the introduction of the euro, claiming it was an overreach that would bring the collapse of the European project. Yet today, Persian Gulf oil exporters are diversifying their currency holdings into euros, and President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad of Iran has proposed that OPEC no longer price its oil in â€šÃ„Ãºworthlessâ€šÃ„Ã¹ dollars. President Hugo ChâˆšÂ°vez of Venezuela went on to suggest euros. It doesnâ€šÃ„Ã´t help that Congress revealed its true protectionist colors by essentially blocking the Dubai ports deal in 2006. With London taking over (again) as the worldâ€šÃ„Ã´s financial capital for stock listing, itâ€šÃ„Ã´s no surprise that Chinaâ€šÃ„Ã´s new state investment fund intends to locate its main Western offices there instead of New York. Meanwhile, Americaâ€šÃ„Ã´s share of global exchange reserves has dropped to 65 percent. Gisele BâˆšÂºndchen demands to be paid in euros, while Jay-Z drowns in 500 euro notes in a recent video. American soft power seems on the wane even at home.
And Europeâ€šÃ„Ã´s influence grows at Americaâ€šÃ„Ã´s expense. While America fumbles at nation-building, Europe spends its money and political capital on locking peripheral countries into its orbit. Many poor regions of the world have realized that they want the European dream, not the American dream. Africa wants a real African Union like the E.U.; we offer no equivalent. Activists in the Middle East want parliamentary democracy like Europeâ€šÃ„Ã´s, not American-style presidential strongman rule. Many of the foreign students we shunned after 9/11 are now in London and Berlin: twice as many Chinese study in Europe as in the U.S. We didnâ€šÃ„Ã´t educate them, so we have no claims on their brains or loyalties as we have in decades past. More broadly, America controls legacy institutions few seem to want â€šÃ„Ã® like the International Monetary Fund â€šÃ„Ã® while Europe excels at building new and sophisticated ones modeled on itself. The U.S. has a hard time getting its way even when it dominates summit meetings â€šÃ„Ã® consider the ill-fated Free Trade Area of the Americas â€šÃ„Ã® let alone when itâ€šÃ„Ã´s not even invited, as with the new East Asian Community, the regionâ€šÃ„Ã´s answer to Americaâ€šÃ„Ã´s Apec.
The East Asian Community is but one example of how China is also too busy restoring its place as the worldâ€šÃ„Ã´s â€šÃ„ÃºMiddle Kingdomâ€šÃ„Ã¹ to be distracted by the Middle Eastern disturbances that so preoccupy the United States. In Americaâ€šÃ„Ã´s own hemisphere, from Canada to Cuba to ChâˆšÂ°vezâ€šÃ„Ã´s Venezuela, China is cutting massive resource and investment deals. Across the globe, it is deploying tens of thousands of its own engineers, aid workers, dam-builders and covert military personnel. In Africa, China is not only securing energy supplies; it is also making major strategic investments in the financial sector. The whole world is abetting Chinaâ€šÃ„Ã´s spectacular rise as evidenced by the ballooning share of trade in its gross domestic product â€šÃ„Ã® and China is exporting weapons at a rate reminiscent of the Soviet Union during the cold war, pinning America down while filling whatever power vacuums it can find. Every country in the world currently considered a rogue state by the U.S. now enjoys a diplomatic, economic or strategic lifeline from China, Iran being the most prominent example.
Without firing a shot, China is doing on its southern and western peripheries what Europe is achieving to its east and south. Aided by a 35 million-strong ethnic Chinese diaspora well placed around East Asiaâ€šÃ„Ã´s rising economies, a Greater Chinese Co-Prosperity Sphere has emerged. Like Europeans, Asians are insulating themselves from Americaâ€šÃ„Ã´s economic uncertainties. Under Japanese sponsorship, they plan to launch their own regional monetary fund, while China has slashed tariffs and increased loans to its Southeast Asian neighbors. Trade within the India-Japan-Australia triangle â€šÃ„Ã® of which China sits at the center â€šÃ„Ã® has surpassed trade across the Pacific.
At the same time, a set of Asian security and diplomatic institutions is being built from the inside out, resulting in Americaâ€šÃ„Ã´s grip on the Pacific Rim being loosened one finger at a time. From Thailand to Indonesia to Korea, no country â€šÃ„Ã® friend of Americaâ€šÃ„Ã´s or not â€šÃ„Ã® wants political tension to upset economic growth. To the Western eye, it is a bizarre phenomenon: small Asian nation-states should be balancing against the rising China, but increasingly they rally toward it out of Asian cultural pride and an understanding of the historical-cultural reality of Chinese dominance. And in the former Soviet Central Asian countries â€šÃ„Ã® the so-called Stans â€šÃ„Ã® China is the new heavyweight player, its manifest destiny pushing its Han pioneers westward while pulling defunct microstates like Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, as well as oil-rich Kazakhstan, into its orbit. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization gathers these Central Asian strongmen together with China and Russia and may eventually become the â€šÃ„ÃºNATO of the East.â€šÃ„Ã¹
PARAG KHANNA – The New York Times
Copyright The New York Times